Current Events in the Philippines

[Crafty_Dog]

                    1140 GMT - Three kidnappers and their 60-year-old hostage were killed June 19 after the kidnappers battled police in Tarlac, Philippines police chief
Hermogenes Ebdane said. Philippine authorities are investigating 14 kidnapping gangs at the order of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who wants to shake the country's reputation of being Asia's kidnapping capital.  Since the beginning of 2003, there have been 29 reported kidnappings, with
more than half taking place in Manila alone.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                     The Philippines, the MILF and an Opportunity for Peace
Jun 24, 2003

Summary

The Philippine government on June 23 welcomed a public rejection of terrorism by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and indicated it was ready to establish a permanent cease-fire and renew formal negotiations to end the 25-year-old insurgency. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's political considerations, combined with the MILF's present eagerness to move from conflict to negotiation, are likely to build momentum for a reduction of hostilities on the island for the short term.

Analysis
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Too long for format allowed here.  Remainder on forum at www.dogbrothers.com

yip!
Crafty Dog
                   

[Crafty_Dog]

                    1113 GMT - Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ordered a crackdown on the Marxist group The New People's Army on June 27 after about 200 militants from the group allegedly killed 17 people at an army base on Samar Island. The government and the militants broke off peace talks in 2001 after the group killed a former congressman. The group claims that it has 13,500 fighters, while the Philippine government estimates that it has about 10,000.

www.stratfor.com                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    Widespread Repercussions of Philippine Prison Break
Jul 16, 2003

Summary

The escape of a high-ranking Jamaah Islamiyah militant, Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi, from a Philippine prison is an embarrassment for Manila and could contribute significantly to the operational capabilities of his organization. In addition, where the fugitive runs could have serious repercussions for negotiations between Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Analysis

The escape of Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi, the highest-ranking Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) militant to be captured in the Philippines, represents an embarrassment and long-term threat to Manila. Al-Ghozi, who is suspected of links with al Qaeda, and two Abu Sayyaf rebels escaped July 14 from the Philippine Intelligence Command building at Camp Crame in Quezon City.

Although the breakout presents no immediate security threat, if Al-Ghozi is not recaptured and returns to JI, his explosives expertise and other skills likely will increase the operational capabilities of JI and its affiliated groups. One of those groups, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), could face repercussions in negotiations for peace talks with Manila, and its members likely will be split on how to handle the fugitive if he flees to Mindanao.

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's administration has been humiliated by the escape. To add insult to injury, the escape occurred while Australian Prime Minister John Howard was in Manila to discuss counterterrorism measures with Arroyo. The incident severely undermines the confidence of Canberra and Washington for their ally in the war against international Islamic militant groups and damages Arroyo's image in the run-up to the country's 2004 presidential elections.

Although the government has beefed up security in Manila since the breakout, Al-Ghozi's escape will not cause a sharp deterioration in Philippine security in the near term. Al-Ghozi is more likely to be seeking sanctuary and to re-establish contact with his organization than to be plotting an attack within the country.

In the long run, however, Al-Ghozi poses a considerable threat to Manila and the rest of the region. He was arrested in January 2002 for possessing illegal explosives and, while in custody, reportedly admitted to involvement in the December 2000 bombing of a suburban train in Manila that killed 22 people and injured more than 120. Al-Ghozi also allegedly served as a demolitions expert and explosives trainer with the MILF. His technical and leadership skills could enhance JI's operational capabilities -- the group has not executed a significant attack since the Bali bombing in October 2002.

Al-Ghozi's MILF connection presents a delicate situation in the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. Logic would suggest that Al-Ghozi would flee to Mindanao, where he could find sanctuary in the jungle either with the MILF or the Abu Sayyaf insurgencies.

However, the MILF is in the process of fragile negotiations with Manila, which may or may not lead to peace talks in Malaysia, and Al-Ghozi?s connection to the group could hurt its chances for political gains. The MILF has offered to help the government in the manhunt for Al-Ghozi and the two rebels who escaped with him. It is hard to take the MILF offer at face value; most of its members would be seriously tempted to look the other way as the fugitive traveled through their territory. However, MILF leadership might be seriously tempted to turn in Al-Ghozi -- whose reputation and high profile would make him persona non grata in their eyes. Such a move would support the rebels? claims that they are merely an indigenous separatist movement with legitimate complaints against the government in Manila and not linked with JI, a suspected extension of al Qaeda. Despite the contradiction within the MILF, Al-Ghozi probably will be granted safe passage through the region.

With limited options in the Philippines, Al-Ghozi is likely to end up in Indonesia, where a weak security infrastructure and his relative anonymity would make it easier for him to travel.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    1148 GMT - PHILIPPINES - The United States has renewed its warning over terrorist threats in the Philippines after three Islamist militants - including Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi, an alleged Jemaah Islamiyah bomb-maker -- escaped from jail in Quezon City on July 14. "The terrorist threat to
Americans in the Philippines for kidnapping and bombings remains high, and the embassy (in Manila) continues to receive reports of ongoing activities
by known terrorist groups," State Department officials said in a statement.  Due to bomb-related incidents in Manila, U.S. citizens should avoid crowded public places such as nightclubs and bars and be especially alert while in other public places, like shopping malls or buses, the warning said.
                   

[Crafty_Dog]

                    1153 GMT - PHILIPPINES - Following an earlier announcement about plans for peace talks, government officials say Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) have signed a cease-fire, and that a new round of peace talks could begin as soon as July 21. Meanwhile, observers from Malaysia are expected to travel to Mindanao to make sure that the MILF, a separatist group seeking a Muslim homeland, abides by the cease-fire, the BBC reports
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1112 GMT - PHILIPPINES - Manila plans to halt military action against the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and has suspended arrest
warrants for some of the group's leaders in efforts to clear the way for peace talks, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo announced July 18. MILF
Chairman Hashim Salamat and eight other militants will receive safe conduct passes, allowing them to travel to Malaysia for the next round of peace
talks. Malaysia, where the next round of peace talks is to be held. No date was given for the talks, but reports indicated they could resume within days.
                   

[Crafty_Dog]

                    Philippine police on Monday intercepted a container truck loaded with six tons of sodium nitrate explosives. The explosives are believed to be part of
a plan to attack targets in Manila and other urban areas in the country. The Philippine government recently signed a cease-fire agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a Muslim separatist group from Mindanao, ahead of peace talks. Though this is more likely the work of the al Qaeda-aligned Abu Sayyaf group, a campaign of bombings by Muslim extremists throughout the Philippines would do nothing to advance peace talks with the MILF.

                   

[Crafty_Dog]

                    PHILIPPINES
Cops Say Fugitive Bomb-Maker Still in Philippines
from Straits Times [Singapore] & AFP on Monday, July 21, 2003
MANILA -- Fugitive Indonesian bomb-maker Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi has not slipped out of the Philippines and elite tracking teams are on his heels, a police spokesman said on Monday.

National police chief Hermogenes Ebdane flew to the southern Philippines early on Monday to supervise the hunt by 5,000 men, spokesman Ricardo de Leon said.

The spokesman said police were working closely with Interpol and security authorities in the region and there appeared to be 'major developments' in the hunt.

Colonel Daniel Lucero said the military intelligence team that conducted surveillance on Al-Ghozi leading to his arrest in the commercial district of Manila in January 2002 has been recalled to help hunt him down again.

The team is familiar with Al-Ghozi and his contacts and could provide valuable assistance to the police who are searching for the Indonesian fugitive, he said.

Six police guards are facing administrative charges while four are also facing criminal charges after security at the jail was exposed as extremely lax, with guards to the easily-opened cells either absent or asleep.

Al-Ghozi was convicted last year after confessing to using part of a huge explosives cache to blow up a Manila train and other targets in December 2000, killing 22 people.

He said he planned to ship the rest to Singapore as part of a Jemaah Islamiah plot to blow up Western embassies there. -- AFP

Copyright @ 2003 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.
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PHILIPPINES
Al-Ghozi's Captors Back to Square One
from Straits Times [Singapore] & AFP on Monday, July 21, 2003
MANILA - Military intelligence agents who earlier captured Jemaah Islamiah (JI) bomber Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi have been assigned to recapture him after his escape from a police jail, a spokesman said yesterday. Policemen staking out a Muslim part of Manila in their hunt for Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi. -- AP The military intelligence team that conducted surveillance on Al-Ghozi, leading to his arrest in Manila in January last year, has been recalled to hunt him down again, Colonel Daniel Lucero said.

The team is familiar with Al-Ghozi and his contacts and could provide valuable assistance to the police who are searching for the Indonesian fugitive, he added.

Al-Ghozi slipped out of the Philippine police headquarters' jail on July 14.

His escape, along with two members of the Abu Sayyaf Muslim kidnapping group, has harmed the Philippines' image as a reliable ally in the war against terror.

It has also raised questions of possible police connivance in the jailbreak.

Six police guards are facing administrative charges while four are also facing criminal charges after security at the jail was exposed as extremely lax, with guards either absent or asleep.

Al-Ghozi was convicted last year after he confessed to using part of a huge explosives cache to blow up a Manila train and other targets in December 2000, killing 22 people.

He said he planned to ship the rest to Singapore as part of a JI plot to blow up Western embassies there. -- AFP
Copyright @ 2003 Singapore Press Holdings.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    PHILIPPINES
Gov't Troops Foil NPA Plan to Bomb Transmitters
from Philippine Star [Manila] on Monday, July 21, 2003
CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY - Military personnel of the 4th Infantry "Diamond" Division in Agusan del Norte foiled last Sunday a plan by the New People's Army (NPA) to sabotage a number of telecommunications transmitters in the province.

Major General Cristolito Balaoing, commanding general of the 4th ID, said that if the rebels succeeded in toppling the towers of the Philippine Long Distance and Telephone Co. (PLDT) and Philippine Telegraph and Telephone (PT&T), they would have succeeded in dealing a major blow to the province's telecommunications system.

Balaoing disclosed that 4th ID soldiers securing the transmitters on the Butuan City side of Mt. Mayapay engaged about 30 NPA rebels who were about to plant bombs on the various transmitters here.

Several communist rebels were killed in the engagement, the military said.

However, the wounded and the dead were carried away by their comrades in their escape, they added.

"The troops pursued the retreating rebels who were carrying with them their wounded and perhaps dead comrades and went to Barangay Olavi who then mixed with civilians," he reported. Copyright? Philstar.com, Inc. All Rights reserved
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PHILIPPINES
Philippines May Find Fugitive Militant Soon-Minister
from Reuters on Wednesday, July 23, 2003
Philippine police expect results soon in the hunt for fugitive Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi -- a self-confessed member of Muslim militant group Jemaah Islamiah, Philippines Foreign Minister Blas Ople said on Wednesday.

A senior police official had said the police "expect to have results in two or three days" in the search for al-Ghozi, Ople told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of Asian and European foreign ministers on this resort island. Al-Ghozi, an Indonesian, had been imprisoned in the Philippines for illegal possession of explosives and falsifying documents, but escaped last week with two other prisoners from a maximum security detention centre to the embarrassment of Philippine police. Al-Ghozi had been linked to actual and planned attacks on various targets in the region by Jemaah Islamiah, which has been linked to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. Ople said he had told the police general on the phone he was probably being too optimistic about quickly finding al-Ghozi, but was assured there were grounds for such optimism. In an apparent reference to the criticism of the police after the escape, Ople said they had "a very strong incentive" to catch al-Ghozi. "The basis is self-preservation," Ople said. He also told reporters Indonesia had agreed to monitor its ports of entry for a possible attempt by al-Ghozi to return to his home country, and that 5,000 police were looking for him in the Philippines. "There is really no place to hide for al-Ghozi," Ople said. Copyright 2003 Reuters Limited.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    Item Number:14
Date: 07/25/2003
PHILIPPINES - ARROYO MOVES TROOPS TO MANILA (JUL 25/AFP)

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE -- Hundreds of elite Philippine soldiers were deployed to Manila to increase security in the capital, amid reports of restiveness in the military.  President Gloria Arroyo said that difficulties with military had been resolved and denied the army was plotting a coup against her,
reports Agence France-Presse.

"There has been some understandable restiveness, but I have resolved this matter directly with the troops," said Arroyo.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                             EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, he and roughly 50 heavily armed members of the Philippine military seized a commercial complex in Manila?s financial district and rigged the place with explosives, swearing to blow it up if they were attacked. At least two unnamed Americans were reported to be trapped inside, although members of the mutiny insisted they were holding no hostages. Government troops surrounded the complex but kept their distance.

        The uprising included several Special Operations officers who had earned decorations in the three-decade war against Muslim rebels in the south. The mutinous troops issued a statement complaining of favoritism and corruption. ?We demand the resignation of our leaders in the present regime,? it said. ?We are willing to sacrifice our lives today to pursue a program not tainted with politicking.? Armed Forces spokesman Lt. Col. Daniel Lucero said that the siege was not seen as a threat to power, and that the Manila government hoped for a peaceful resolution. Shortly afterward, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo gave the soldiers seven hours to return to their barracks or face ?reasonable force.?
       
       ? 2003 Newsweek, Inc.
                   

[Crafty_Dog]

                    1122 GMT - PHILIPPINES: Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo announced in a televised state of the nation address July 28 that an
independent commission would be set up to investigate the recent coup attempt. Arroyo called the incident unfortunate and vowed that the men
involved would face punishment. She also said that the government must determine and address what caused the soldiers to attempt a coup. Meanwhile,
about 4,000 activists gathered outside the House of Representatives during Arroyo's speech, burning her pictures and shouting anti-Arroyo slogans.

www.stratfor.com                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    Woof All:

There is a post prior to this one on our forum at www.dogbrothers.com that was not posted here because of size limitations here that gives some interesting context to today's entries.

Crafty Dog
------------------

www.stratfor.com

1154 GMT - PHILIPPINES: The Moro Islamic Front (MILF) admits it bought guns from the Philippine military, MILF spokesman Eid Kabalu told AFP. However, Eid denied that the military supports the militant group works, noting that the guns most likely were purchased from individual soldiers. Philippine soldiers who attempted to overthrow the government on July 26 had accused the government of working with the militant group, as well as attacking Philippine citizens and blaming it on the MILF. The government has denied those charges.


1108 GMT - PHILIPPINES: The head of Philippine military intelligence, Brig. Gen. Victor Corpus, resigned July 30, citing "deep restiveness" inside the officers corp. His resignation was one of the demands made by renegade soldiers who attempted to overthrow the government on July 26. However, National Security Adviser Roilo Golez denied there was a link between the demand and Corpus' resignation, noting that Corpus had been thinking about stepping down for more than a month.                    

[Crafty_Dog]

                    For those interested, yesterday I posted a piece too long to fit here on our public forum ww.dogbrothers.com

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1154 GMT - PHILIPPINES: Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has warned that even though the July 27 coup participants have been arrested and
charge in the rebellion, a larger threat remains against the government. Since the coup, Arroyo has given authorities expanded powers that include
the ability to arrest people without a warrant. Those powers will remain in effect until the situation is brought under control and the threat of future coup plots is removed, Arroyo said.                    

[Anonymous]

 MILF Founder's Death Poses Hurdle For Peace Talks
Aug 05, 2003

Summary

Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) founder Hashim Salamat reportedly died July 13, a Philippine government official told local media Aug. 4. Salamat's death was kept a secret to avoid a power struggle in the MILF and to maintain progress toward peace talks with the government. If the story of Salamat's demise is accurate, the peace talks -- which were postponed again on Aug. 4 -- might be in trouble, since a single voice for MILF no longer exists.

Analysis

Philippine rebel leader Hashim Salamat, founder and leader of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), died July 13 of an acute ulcer, Undersecretary of the Office of Muslim Affairs Datu Zamzamin Ampatuan told ABS-CBN News on Aug. 4. MILF leaders had kept Salamat's death a secret to avoid triggering a power struggle or undermining negotiations leading to peace talks, which were to have begun Aug. 4 in Malaysia but were postponed over MILF concerns that a formal cease-fire has yet to be worked out.

If accurate, the report of Salamat's death presents both openings and dangers for the peace process between the MILF and the Philippine government. On one hand, it was hard for Salamat to take part in negotiations, and his involvement -- or lack thereof -- was a sticking point. On the other hand, without Salamat, Manila will not be sure that it is dealing with the full leadership of the MILF in talks, and rogue elements of the MILF likely will break away, leaving any peace process incomplete.

Salamat was known to be ill and under medical care, particularly after a series of military operations left the MILF founder without a home. His alleged death came at a crucial time in negotiations with Manila, with the question of criminal charges against key MILF leaders standing in the way of the resumption of talks. The delay in announcing his death will leave the government unsure of any other promise or comment by MILF negotiators; even after Salamat's alleged death, the MILF was promising he would take part in negotiations in Kuala Lumpur.

Perhaps more troubling for Manila will be the power struggle in the MILF that Salamat's death will accelerate. The MILF already was split over the latest series of peace negotiations, and Salamat's death leaves no clear, single voice for the group. This both will weaken the MILF's bargaining position at peace talks -- if they are resumed after the latest delay on Aug. 4 -- and simultaneously increase the government's sense of urgency to get talks going to avoid losing momentum. Adding to the government's need to press forward with talks -- and make them successful -- is the recent coup attempt, which leaves President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo looking for a clear political victory to shore up her support.

Some MILF elements might not see this as the best time to negotiate if Salamat is dead. Rather, with the MILF weakened and the government at least challenged, if not threatened, some MILF commanders might see this as the perfect time to attack government forces, proving the MILF's strength and holding out for a time when the militant group stands to gain more from talks.

The MILF itself was formed in response to similar disagreements during peace negotiations between the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the government, when Salamat and others refused to go along with the concessions agreed to by MNLF commanders. A repeat scenario is not inconceivable at this time either, raising the possibility of a new bombing or militant raid in the Philippines in an attempt to throw off the peace process.



Related Headlines
Mixed Opinions Disrupt Resumption of MILF-Philippine Talks
Jul 10, 2003
Widespread Repercussions of Philippine Prison Break
Jul 16, 2003
Arroyo May Emerge Stronger After Attempted Coup
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Philippines: Government Seeking Split in Rebel Group
Mar 11, 2002
MILF: Short-Term Advantage, Long-Term Challenges